Midterms 2026 War Room

1. 1Democrats hold a 3-point lead on the generic congressional ballot in a new AARP poll (The Hill).
2. 2Top Republicans privately concede House control is all but gone as the party retreats from battleground districts (Politico; PBS NewsHour).
3. 3A judge extended a block on taxpayer-funded Trump ads until after the midterms (The Hill).

AI summary of the latest headlines. Check the linked sources.

1. Wed 4 Nov

   01:00MEZ

   • Georgia SenateMedium count
   • Georgia Governor (open)Medium count

2. 01:30MEZ

   • North Carolina Senate (open)Fast count
   • Ohio Senate (special)Fast count

3. 02:00MEZ

   • Michigan Senate (open)Slow count
   • Maine SenateMedium count
   • New Hampshire Senate (open)Fast count
   • Pennsylvania's 7thSlow count
   • Pennsylvania's 10thSlow count
   • Michigan's 7thSlow count
   • Maine's 2nd (open)Medium count

4. 03:00MEZ

   • Iowa Senate (open)Fast count
   • Texas Senate (open)Medium count
   • Wisconsin Governor (open)Medium count
   • New York's 17thMedium count
   • Iowa's 1stFast count
   • Nebraska's 2nd (open)Fast count
   • Colorado's 8thMedium count

5. 04:00MEZ

   • Arizona GovernorSlow count
   • Arizona's 6thSlow count

6. 05:00MEZ

   • California's 13thSlow count

Times are when most of each state closes. Count speed is the historical pace of results.

• Georgia Senate

  D+9.3 · $40.5M

  100

• North Carolina Senate (open)

  D+10.4 · $45.6M

  100

• Arizona Governor

  D+8.2 · $9.5M

  100

• Nebraska's 2nd (open)

  D+12.0 · $3.2M

  100

• Arizona's 6th

  D+2.0* · $3.7M

  100

• Texas Senate (open)

  D+3.1 · $20.9M

  99

• New Hampshire Senate (open)

  D+7.1 · $11.2M

  97

• Ohio Senate (special)

  D+3.7 · $32.0M

  88

• California's 13th

  no polls · $2.8M

  87

• Pennsylvania's 10th

  D+3.0 · $4.7M

  79

• Pennsylvania's 7th

  D+5.0 · $5.0M

  74

• Maine's 2nd (open)

  R+10.0* · $2.7M

  72

• Michigan Senate (open)

  D+3.5 · $33.8M

  65

• Colorado's 8th

  no polls · $4.3M

  62

• Wisconsin Governor (open)

  D+2.8 · $7.0M

  52

• Maine Senate

  D+2.2 · $17.8M

  41

• Iowa's 1st

  D+5.0 · $4.0M

  37

• Iowa Senate (open)

  D+0.9 · $14.3M

  36

• Georgia Governor (open)

  R+1.7 · $7.9M

  35

• Michigan's 7th

  D+2.0* · $3.7M

  26

• New York's 17th

  D+2.0 · $5.6M

  20

Each dot is that signal's Democratic share. A high score means polls, markets and money disagree. * partisan poll. Polls: FiftyPlusOne averages, VoteHub (CC BY 4.0).